What is most interesting to me to watch from all the month-long events in 2022 leading up to the event of yesterday when Russia accorded recognition to Doneyetsk and Luhansk is only this: (1) Whether this dramatic Russian coup is going to lead to NATO becoming united or whether it will start disintegrating? and (2) What does it all mean to India?
Economic sanctions on Russia are only short-term weapons. It simply won’t work in the long-run …Russia is not Iran … and definitely not Sudan either …
Europe has no real military might or will on its own to confront and engage Russia. So, in purely military terms, NATO minus AMERICA is zero.
It is no secret that Europe resents being dictated to by America. It’s subservient status in NATO rankles and US-EU cross-Atlantic relationship chafes in many sorts of ways.
Sanctions on Russia will surely hurt Europe in many ways… notably in the Energy sector!
Long-term Energy security is key for Europe. Only Russia not America can provide that…
If Europe turns away from Nord Stream2 gas supply … Russia can still supply that gas to China whose energy demand situation can quite easily absorb excess supply. India also can buy Russian gas on the side without inviting the wrath of full-blown American sanctions .
So, under all these circumstances, how long can Economic sanctions against Russia work for America and Europe? IMHO, not for very long .
Sooner or later , AMERICA and Europe will surely face an inflection point … and they will have to either wage war … even perhaps a nuclear standoff with Russia, God forbid, or else quietly resign themselves to the liquidation of NATO…
And Europe will then simply end up making some sort of uneasy peace once again with Russia just to ensure overall European stability, both economically and territorially.
One way for America however to weaken Russia is to substantially weaken and degrade China economically ….
If Chinese economic strength gets depleted … then it will turn inward, suspend its expansionism and leave Russia to fend for itself. That is when Russia will start cracking up … and American dominance in Europe will once again experience a resurgence.
The prospective weakening of both China and Russia is precisely what engenders the congruence of strategic foreign-policy objectives of India with the larger geopolitical goals of America in Asia. And that truly is going to be both a challenge and an opportunity for India to meet, seize and exploit to its own advantage.
Interesting years ahead indeed in the theatre of global big power geopolitics !
Sudarshan Madabushi