The above Chart is a real beauty! It points to a diplomatic way out of the messy negotiations going on now between the USA and Russia over Ukraine … in favour of the Western powers.
The chart reveals that half of America is fine with imposing sanctions on Russia but not all-out War over Ukraine.
The chart also shows that half of all Americans are making a fine yet nebulous distinction between “partial” and “full invasion” by Russia of Ukraine.
Partial invasion really means Russia extending its sovereignty over Russian-speaking regions in the east of Ukraine … called Donbass — Donetsk and Luhansk the major populations of which are already voicing their wish to secede from Ukraine and merge with Russia.
The Russians want these Regions in order to be able to position and establish military bases that would be needed to resist NATO forces that may in future, when push becomes shove, threaten Russian security from the West.
The USA might strategically want to let Russia claim the Donbass as its own in a sort of diplomatic coup d’etat… that would nonetheless qualify as “partial invasion” in the eyes of the “international community”.
That would create the perfect pretext for the entire Western Powers to lobby and pressure the UN Security Council into passing a UN Resolution designating the area as “ROU”— Russia Occupied Ukraine— and using that to impose crippling UN, US, UK and EU sanctions as immediate and continuing future reprisals against Russia.
War will be averted. Half of American public opinion too will be “respected” in the highest traditions of the great American democracy.
Thereafter, what might then remain of Ukraine —- a substantial part of all the present territory lying to the west of Donbass— will serve NATO and the West as yet another “strategic hot-spot” in the world much like Palestine, Kashmir, Taiwan and Cuba serves them today in maintaining their geopolitical dominance and influence over the prevailing international order.
ROU will admirably serve US interests in enabling Ukraine to, in fact, formally join both NATO and the EU without being hindered by any of its past covenants and commitments made to Russia under previous international pacts or agreements. The Minsk Agreement will be minced and thrown away.
The western arms-industry too can uninhibitedly supply massive weaponry to Ukraine in the name of providing defence security for NATO on its East-European frontier. Together with Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, the addition of Ukraine to the NATO encirclement of Russia will be complete and rendered more ironclad. The massive “military-industry complex” of America and Europe will enjoy booming business prospects for several decades to come.
There is enough natural gas reserves in America and Canada to meet European demand and hence EU’s energy-security will be henceforth firmly in the hands of the Americas. That will only further strengthen the existing North Atlantic bond. America will continue to be the EU’s Big Brother. UK will of course continue in its role as America’s “Cousin”, lackey and “poodle” as part of the age-old “special relationship” the two often invoke.
The Donbass to Russia will then eventually become what PoK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) is today to India —- a territory that is perennially kept effectually deprived of full Russian sovereignty. Or, similarly again, much like the perennial “hot-spot” or “tinder-box” of Israeli-occupied Palestinian West Bank.
Anti-Russia insurgency in the Donbass region can be continuously supported and encouraged from the Ukraine side and … much like how Pakistan succeeds in doing through terrorism even today after 70 years in India … Russia too can be made by Europe to “bleed by a thousand cuts” until it submits to Western hegemony. Who knows by 2039 … fifty years after 1989… Russia may well fall again like the Soviet Empire did?
That indeed is the real and probable diplomatic scenario which the above info-graph suggests to me as very possibly unfolding in Ukraine .
Sudarshan Madabushi
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