Prime Minister Modi is in the USA today ! And over the next few days INDIA and USA are expected to sign landmark long-term agreements which will commit the latter to unprecedented defence and trade ties favouring the former. India is said to be on the cusp of a so-called “heralding of a totally new chapter” in relations with America signifying the coming together of the worlds two most powerful democracies !
Naturally, the mood in India both in the government and media is euphoric . And social media is being swamped by ecstatic information like this one below ⬇️:
Here is my own personal take on the swirling air of euphoria that is now blowing across the country here in India the moment Modi touched down in New York late last night .
I am not a cynic … but I must confess I am a skeptic . So, please indulge me the Orwellian anxiety or even pessimism that you think darkens and stains my views below:
The same fuss and super-hype we make today over Modi -Biden agreement , was also made back in 2005 over the Civil Nuclear Agreement that was signed by George Bush Jr. and Dr.MM Singh … Anyone today who can recall those heady, champagne-fizz then cannot help feeling déjà vu today .
I often ask myself : Do we have any visibility on what exactly are the benefits our country derived from that Agreement… and what were the costs ?
So, after 10 years, what do you think will be cost/benefit P&L A/c for a similarly celebrated Modi -Biden agreement ?
The exultant mood seizing them today might make some people remark though : “MMS -Bush Civil Nuclear agreement, benefits maybe… “0”. True that India was promised entry into NSG, and that has not happened.
But today US needs India more than it did in 2005. Global political situation is very different today, with US/China relations strained, with American private sector looking for alternatives to China. India is also a very important spoke in Quad. Modi is expected to leverage all that. So let’s wait and see”.
Well … that only makes me a tad more sceptical … Here’s why:
All that one reads in the news is that INDIA will get some kind of drone and jet-engine manufacturing and some intelligence-gathering technology… all at arms-length commercial prices and terms . So nothing is coming free or out of mutual goodwill … US will be milking INDIA for decades to come for defence supplies, spares and so-called technology updates …
The question no one in the policy-making circuit seems to be asking is whether this Indo-US agreement will really hoist Modi’s atmanirbhar program in Defence to a whole new higher level and by what quantum of degree ?
I for one don’t have a clue .
The reason for the prevailing mood of gushing euphoria amongst many Indians is that much of the country reposes great trust in PM Modi’s leadership. They tell themselves: “What we read and get as news us probably only 25% of the whole. One thing however that is certain is that Modi will NOT go and sell country’s interests. That much trust at least we all have. Atmanirbhar in defence is already scaling great heights; still a long way to go perhaps but the trend is already set. Just see how India is today exporting missiles, launching satellites for other countries on commercial scale! Not that these were not possible earlier, but today it is a question of real intent, inclination and a deep sense of national interest which earlier Govts lacked”.
Listening to the above effusive words, I too feel quite uplifted by hope and trust … but then why is it that I still also cannot help a small, lurking fear that it is more audacity of hope than reasonableness of hope . …?
I often ask myself this: In spite of our signing the Civil Nuclear Agreement in 2005, did it give us entry into NSG — the nuclear supplier group? No. We have even today no access to state-of-art nuclear technology . China and a few other unfriendly countries effectively frustrated us in that endeavour by saying that since India was not a signatory to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Agreement, it cannot and should not get technology under NSG . And Russia, despite having very close and warm relations with India, could not, in all these years, do anything to provide India any way out of the difficulty … and that was out of fear of international sanctions .
Now that US says it will supply INDIA with new generation conventional defence cutting-edge technology , will China and other unfriendly countries sit back and just passively allow it to happen ? No way ! They will do everything in their means to sabotage or at least render unproductive the new US-India agreement. China especially will see the agreement as an act of bellicosity on the part of India towards it.
What is even more likely is that by aligning ourselves more and more with distant friend America, INDIA might only end up alienating neighbouring friend Russia who will be compelled into joining hands with the neighbouring adversary China. Quite likely, both probably then will begin to work against India to thwart it from ever succeeding in converging its own interests with the larger US geopolitical goal of containing China in Asia and Asia Pacific .
My uneasiness if not anxiety is that Indian foreign-policy is somehow trying to ride two strong horses (US and Russia) pulling in opposing directions at the same time much like an over-ambitious equestrian acrobat who overestimates his skills.
If India is able to pull the acrobatic policy off, well and good: China will remain contained and the Russia will be left out in the Siberian cold. But if the policy fails , India’s fall, from a geo-strategic viewpoint, from the two horses could be grievous or disastrous if not really fatal… Now, that scenario is one where downside risks will far exceed upside returns.
Sudarshan Madabushi
Wonderful and thought provoking. The US has never been a friend to India. In 1962 during the Chinese invasion (call it what it is, it was an invasion), the US refused to provide arms to India — they in fact made fun of the Indian AirForce for using World War II surplus. During the Kargil shoot-out, the US blocked all GPS services to the Indian Armed Forces quoting fairness. But the same fairness was not applicable to Pakistan, because they were afraid of what Saudi Arabia would do!!! At high levels, the Indian Policy holders are aware of this. So any military acquisition that India does would be for short term measures only.