Looking at the map above one can easily understand why NATO certainly presents a clear even if not immediately present “existential threat” and danger to Russia .
NATO shares a border today with Russia that will overnight double in length once Finland and Sweden join it formally anytime soon in a year from today!
In one sweeping masterstroke that is indeed a geo-strategic coup de grace, NATO will force Russia now to double or triple down on whatever humongous sums of money it’s now already spending from its oil-earnings on the defence of its western border which is only 1232 Kms with NATO but which will suddenly soon grow to 2573 Kms !
One might argue that in such lengthening of the border with Russia NATO too will have to spend proportionately more than it does today on the protection of that frontier. But then it will be realised that the burden of such additional expenditure will be syndicated amongst the 20+ member-nations in the Treaty … whereas Russia alone will have to bear the entire weight of burden in protecting its enlarged border with NATO. And the prospect of diminished oil-export revenues resulting from economic sanctions and trade embargoes imposed by NATO countries will only further worsen the situation for Russia in the years ahead.
The Chinese Sage , Sun-Tzu once said “Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.”
NATO it appears — by this strategic move to include Finland and Sweden into its camp — wants to savour the win in the Ukraine war first before going to war later sometime this century with Russia . While Russia, as it appears today, is acting so much like what Sun Tzu described as “ defeated warriors going to war first and then seeking to win it”.
This is indeed a master-strategic move by the Western powers against Russia. On the one hand it crushingly attenuates Russia’s military might . And on the other hand, it effectively positions a great big “creeping glacier” on the doorsteps of the Russian continental fortress which in time can easily be transformed into an “overpowering avalanche” . This is a strategy that combines both a “crouching tiger” and “a hidden dragon” , to use a Chinese martial arts metaphor .
We can understand the profound geopolitical implications of the NATO move more fully we must view it from an India perspective.
We must imagine a situation where Pakistan and China together conspire and collaborate sometime possibly in future to extend their respective existing borders with India — I.e. the present LoC and LAC (Line of Control and Line of Actual Control) — by , say, a factor of a third each in length.
What would happen then ?
Now , that will mean that the present 720 Kms (LoC) + 4057 Kms (LAC) , a total of 4777 Kms will get stretched to 6353 Kms !
Now, can you imagine the additional burden of annual budgetary resources —- both capital and revenue in nature — that the Indian defence forces will then be compelled to commit to the defence of the new borderline of India?!
China is a $ 30 trillion GDP economy (PPP terms) . India by comparison is around a $ 6.5- 7.5 trillion economy. Any additional outlay on defence concomitant with the extension of the envisaged borderline could potentially cripple the Indian economy while only denting the Chinese .
Sun Tsu is also credited with having conceived the following famous aphorism :
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
Sun Tsu – The Art of War
Historically all across the world, nations that wanted to either conquer borders or to defend them had to necessarily engage in war against each other. But today … at least as seen between NATO and Russia in the war in Ukraine … the Sun Tsu doctrine and inspiration quoted above seems to be in playing out right before our eyes i.e.:
The best way to subdue the enemy without fighting a war is to simply stretch the borders with him as far longer possible than they are!
Sudarshan Madabushi