Reading the FT London article reminded me about how once upon a time, in the 1980-90s Turkey and then more recently in 2009-12, Greece too, were both regarded as the “sick man of Europe”.
Today Europe or the EU appears to well qualify for that epithet of UN-eminence : “sick man of the world”.
Europe now calling itself The EU has not only Turkey or Greece ailing in its continent-wide hospital-ward of sick economic men … Outside the ward, there’s Germany, France and Italy too now waiting in line to register and admit themselves as patients …
Europe has many “sick men” indeed today to attend to which hapless surgeons and physicians — like Christine Lagarde, for example, the eminent IMF/World Bank economist guru for all Europe — have to desperately try and revive.
It was the Biden Presidency that sent Europe spiralling to its doom … militarily .
Will the Trump Presidency now send Europe to its doom … economically ?
Clearly , America’s military hegemony in the world has in the past few decades, seen a rapid and unmistakable decline . And that’s precisely why under Donald Trump, America is aiming instead for global economic hegemony. Hegemonic powers never give up hegemony. They only switch hegemonic strategies.
India better watch out for this new game of hegemony that is surely going to come home here and be played out in its front yard and backyard …
America has a huge adverse trade deficit with China which it seeks to reduce by imposing punitive tariffs on all Chinese imports.
India too has a huge adverse trade imbalance with China that Trump knows only too well about. And Trump knows too that India has a trade surplus with the USA… and he’s not too happy with that.
No one in India should be surprised by America’s ambush. America under Trump is going to want India to begin substituting or converting the India-China trade deficit with an India-America trade deficit.
What better way to do that than to pressure India to do exactly what Christine Lagarde is now advising the EU to do ? “Buy more from America!”.
Lagarde has understood Trump’s economic geo-strategy very well and quite astutely indeed. She asks : “How can Trump ever make America great again if global economic Demand is falling?”
In India we must ask ourselves, if Trump can coerce EU policy into burying more from America, won’t India’s trade policy too … India being after all one of the biggest consumer markets in Asia … be arm-twisted into “buying more from America than it does now from China?”
In other words, let’s ask ourselves : How can India become great again without being coerced into having to help America become great again (MAGA)?
Sudarshan Madabushi
PS :
Trade with the US yielded a $35.3 billion surplus. Trade with China resulted in an $85.1 billion deficit.
The U.S. goods trade deficit with China was $382.3 billion in 2022, a 8.3 percent increase ($29.4 billion) over 2021.