https://youtu.be/LfGcX4XuZ5A?si=eI-TrBmS3Dw3JFoO
The above video discusses the Middle East’s reaction to Iran’s attacks and the US’s role in the region.
It is a very sober and sagacious assessment.
It’s America that is the real villain of the piece here .
It’s very clear what the larger American imperial strategic game here is :
1. The target is China . Do everything to contain China in the long term. How ?
2. Weaken EU : so it shrinks as a marketplace for China exports .
3. Choke up Venezuela oil exports to China .
4. Disrupt Iranian oil export to China.
5. Impose sanctions on Russia to degrade its economy so its Economic and Military cooperation with China becomes ineffective or effete.
6. Create Chaos in African states where Chinese footprint is getting larger in terms of investments.
So, America is really playing the long game here against China.
In the short term , EU, Greenland, Ukraine , Venezuela and Iran are merely moving the pieces on the chessboard for establishing positional advantage .
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Here’s a breakdown of the key topics discussed in the interview in the above video:
• Surprise at US reaction (0:54-1:39): The former Saudi intelligence chief expresses surprise at President Trump’s surprise regarding Iran’s retaliation. He notes that Gulf leaders had previously warned the US against military action in Iran, anticipating retaliation against American presence in the region.
• Gulf States’ defense capabilities (2:18-3:14): Saudi Arabia is working to strengthen its military capabilities and develop a domestic military industry to reduce reliance on foreign powers. They are also collaborating with other Gulf States to form a common defense command.
• Past US support (3:15-3:42): The former intelligence chief recalls that the Trump administration did not offer support when Saudi Arabia was bombed by Iranian missiles in 2019, indicating a lack of surprise at the current lack of US assistance.
• Saudi Arabia’s focus on development (4:00-4:11): The Kingdom is focused on social, industrial, and commercial development and aims to avoid military conflicts in the region.
• Iran’s internal situation (4:48-6:08): The speaker dismisses the idea of a sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shia. He believes the Iranian system will not collapse soon, as its leadership has been preparing for potential challenges, including those stemming from past calls for destruction by Mr. Netanyahu. He also notes that Iran is already in the process of electing a new leader and has an interim leadership in place.
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Now, here’s what could be a game changer for the GCC countries in the ongoing war . It could throw a spanner in the works for both Israel and America and serve to shorten sharply the expected duration of the war.
If the GCC nations were to declare themselves unanimously as neutral in the war between US-Israel against Iran , it might help in 3 significant ways :
- Israel would get isolated politically in the region .
- US would be seen to be acting in defense and on behalf of only Israel and not on behalf of so-called “regional peace” — the dubious justification it is now using as its reason for waging war .
- Iran could use the GCC declaration of neutrality to put USA and Israel in a real spot in the UNSC and the US Congress and Senate.
However, it would take great courage indeed on the part of the monarchies to take such a bold statesmanlike step. And these rulers do not have a credible track record of showing such courage.
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Now, we come to the question that everyone is asking in India: PM Modi’s silence or ambivalence in this ongoing war .
The answer is obvious to me at least:
The people who are still wondering why Modi is keeping silent on India’s position in this war , they must wake up to understand that Modi too is skilfully playing the long game. And why ? Because he believes that India’s long term geopolitical goal converges perfectly with that of the containment strategy being pursued by America against China.
The near adversary is China … the distant adversary is America. Use the remote to smote the immediate enemy first.
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Sudarshan Madabushi